Do you know the black swan theory?
It was written by Nicholas Taleb and explains how an unlikely event can have a strong impact on the course of the story. The observer remains disoriented, but rationalizes the incident as soon as the event ends.
In history there are many examples of black swans, that of the twenty-first century is, of course, the Coronavirus pandemic. We experienced it firsthand and felt the sense of instability that generates an event of this magnitude.
The pandemic was not predictable, even by scientific methods, because of the low probability of 1000. It upset our habits, depriving us of the freedom to act that we were too used to considering obvious.
Black swan theory also explains the human ability to deal with the unpredictability of events.
We rewrite in full the swan theory-inspired tale that we have serialized on our social pages.
Meet the protagonists of our story: Vincent, Bob, Sam and Lucas.
That’s four men in their 40s, friends for a lifetime. They live in the United States, specifically in the state of Utah. They have independent activities, but all four are based on fishing. For years they have been discussing the best techniques for fishing for trout. Bob and Sam often clash over the effectiveness of the bomb technique, while Vincent and Bob listen to their teammates amused and retorts. They have different lifestyles, there are those who have family, those who are single by choice and who by fate, but everyone is satisfied and satisfied. Their lives go on serene and peaceful.
That spring Vincent, Bob, Sam and Lucas were hoping for a good fishing season to earn money and realize their projects: Bob wanted to marry Lucy, the Indonesian girl he met at the pub behind the house; Lucas wanted to build a treehouse for his children; Vincent wanted to change the pickup truck, which was now falling apart, and Sam, on the other hand, wanted to buy new fishing gear.
That morning the heavy rain of the night before, complete with thunder and lightning, had subsided and the sky had returned serenely. A new day of fishing awaited them.
Sam reached by whistling Vincent and the others on the side of the pond.
He found his friends astonished and speechless staring at the body of water.
What happened? And why was the water green?
The shore and surrounding water were covered with algae, filamentous ones, the most difficult to eradicate and the most dangerous for fish.
Due to heavy rain some trees had fallen and had blocked the influx of water into the pond. Stagnant water had allowed algae to breed and invade the
shore.” What are we going to do now? Where are we going to fish?” Lucas
asked.” We have to find a solution!” replied Sam.
Facing such an unpredictable and unlikely event was a great challenge for our protagonists. They went home and everyone tried to find a way out of that situation.
Sam decided to sell his house and reinvest the proceeds to buy a boat. He would give up living in Utah and fishing with his friends in the pond and specialize in marlin fishing in the Gulf of Mexico.
Bob decided to go fishing in another lake. The journey to reach it was long, but it would adapt.
Those who did not leave the pond were Vincent, who returned to the scene every day to check if the situation had improved, but the scenario was getting worse: the fallen trees were stuck, the water of the lake was increasingly stagnant and the algae increased. The fish were suffering and it would soon have been impossible to fish.
Unlike his friends, Lucas did not give up and used all his time to find a practical solution to this problem. He was looking for something that would allow him to continue fishing in his pond, overcoming the problem of algae.
Lucas wanted to keep fishing in the pond. There he had many memories with friends and with his grandfather who had taught him the tricks of the trade.
He spent every moment imagining every possible scenario, but at one point realized that the problem should not be avoided by changing direction, but overcome by going further.
The algae had affected only the shore and waters of the banks of the pond. Lucas built a bridge that allowed him to go beyond the algae barrier and in this way managed to fish in the still clean waters of the pond, where there were numerous fish.
This concludes our story, an example of the theory of the black swan: an unpredictable and unexpected event has affected the four fishermen. Some of them changed their way of life to move forward, while Lucas found a solution that allowed him to maintain his lifestyle without change.
Like Lucas, our company has decided to overcome the communication obstacles imposed by the pandemic by investing in an innovative platform, designed to do business with digital tools.
We’re almost ready. It’s not long before the launch! Keep following us.
Cover photo by Alexandra Minakova from Pexels